Research Report P02

Problem Solving Consequences

Practical Problem Solving Requires Considering Consequences

At Steps or Stages 5, 6, and 9 when evaluating solutions in practical problem solving, you must consider the consequences of various solutions.

This is not an easy job, for the future is involved. Usually what people do is guess. If the matter is important enough, it is better to make an educated guess based on applying the scientific method.

Of course, there are consequences at all steps or stages of SM-14. For example, at Step or Stage 1, if you are not using curious observation adequately, you can miss a housing price bubble or some other important activity. But here we are considering the consequences of alternative solutions or concluding problem solutions you have developed.

The Law of Unintended Consequences

This phrase (not really a law) is often used to warn that when you take certain actions something often occurs that you do not foresee and that sometimes may be of major importance. Only careful thinking can guard against these. Type the above phrase into your search engine for more details and examples.

Perverse Consequences – Consider in Practical Problem Solving

Often we take certain actions believing that certain things will result. But lo and behold! Instead the opposite or something else results. A blowback of this nature cannot always be foreseen but must be kept in mind.

Acts of Nature and Accidents

Often our best estimates of the future are wrong because of acts of nature such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, fires, accidents, deaths, etc.

Forecasting, Predicting, and Risk Taking

These are all sciences of their own and should be studied.

What Can You Do About Possible Consequences?

• Make guesses, estimates, predictions.
• If important enough, present the problem of “What will the consequences be of …” Put this through the steps or stages of the scientific method of problem solving, SM-14.
• Keep asking yourself “what if?” and present a variety of things or scenarios that may occur.
• The old “who, what, when, where, why, and how” can also be used to stimulate thinking.
• Speculate, visualize, fantasize, imagine, use your intuition, think out loud, day dream, use triggers.
• Classify how frequent, extensive, important.
• Ask, do I need more data to support any guesses, estimates, forecasts I arrive at?
• What preventive plans can I make about possible consequences to help practical problem solving?
• Have you considered consequences that will result from actions your competitors, government regulators, or others will take to your solution?
• Are any of your forecasts based on wishful thinking rather than a sound estimate?
• What are consequences that may be peculiar to your domain?
• Have you watched for errors? Data correct? Assumptions reasonable?

Contingent Action Plan – Needed for Practical Problem Solving

Be ready with contingent plans in the event your preventive actions are unsuccessful or consequences are greater than forecast.

Constraints on Solutions

At times there will be constraints or impediments to some solutions, such as time, money, opponents, traditions, etc. What will be the consequences of these?

Problem Solving Worksheet

You can’t keep everything in your mind, so design a problem solving chart that fits your needs. An example of a worksheet or chart for practical problem solving follows. Other columns, such as preventive actions, time may occur, area or department, risk, etc., may be added.